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The World This Week
Escalation and de-escalation in the Ukraine crisis
GP Team
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The World This Week #156, Vol. 4, No. 05
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Escalation and de-escalation in the Ukraine crisis
What happened?
On 03 February, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He was stated to have discussed the importance of strategic balance in Europe to maintain order and guarantee security and the need to "accelerate" the peace process in Eastern Ukraine. According to a Kremlin statement: "The substantive dialogue on the situation around Ukraine and issues related to the Russian initiative to develop long-term legally binding security guarantees for the Russian Federation was continued. The leaders exchanged views on the current state of affairs, including in the context of recent contacts with several international partners and France's Presidency at the EU Council. Vladimir Putin again emphasized the provocative statements and actions of the Kiev leadership, which run counter to the Minsk agreements."
On the same day, the Pentagon's press secretary, in a press briefing, mentioned: "Russians are likely to want to fabricate a pretext for an invasion, which again, is right out of their playbook. One option is the Russian government…is planning to stage a fake attack by Ukrainian military or intelligence forces against Russian sovereign territory or against Russian-speaking people the - to therefore justify their action. As part of this fake attack, we believe that Russia would produce a very graphic propaganda video, which would include corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners and images of destroyed locations."
On 2 February, the Pentagon Press secretary said in a briefing: "Our commitment to NATO Article 5 and collective defense remains ironclad. As part of this commitment and to be prepared for a range of contingencies, the United States will soon move additional forces to Romania, Poland and Germany."
Earlier, on 01 February, in a press conference in Moscow, Putin accused the US of ignoring the Russian proposals put forward by Moscow. He was not satisfied with the US' response to Russian demands on NATO's troops and infrastructure removal from Eastern Europe and barred Ukraine from entering NATO. Putin mentioned how: "It's already clear … that Russia's principal concerns were ignored." There was also a call by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for governments to adhere to the 1999 agreement, the violation of which was the basis of the Ukraine crisis.
On 31 January, at the UNSC council meeting, the US Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said: "The threats of aggression on the border of Ukraine ... is provocative. Our recognition of the facts on the ground is not provocative." The UNSC experienced a spillover of the tensions at the Ukrainian border as the countries accused each other of being provocative. She further stated how: "The provocation's from Russia, not from us or other members of this council." Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia responded: "Our Western colleagues are talking about the need for de-escalation. However, first and foremost, they themselves are whipping up tensions and rhetoric and are provoking escalation." Nebenzia also disputed the number of troops stationed at the border.
What is the background?
First, returning to the Normandy format. The return of the Normandy format talks can be seen as the last attempt after the failure of talks at the US-Russia talks, NATO-Russia Council (NRC) meet, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) special plenary meeting, and the recent Geneva talks that were held between US and Russia. The Normandy format seems hopeful in de-escalating the tensions and bringing progress to the situation in Ukraine.
Second, the failure of the Geneva talks. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva on 21 January. The talks were called helpful and agreed to maintain dialogue to resolve the crisis. However, there were no positive responses from either side. After the negotiations, the US did not respond to the Russian proposal; in retrospect, it appears the Blinken-Lavrov talks in Geneva failed to make a breakthrough.
Third, the military escalation. The US announced its redeployment of 1,000 troops and an additional 2,000 troops to Poland, Germany, and Romania had instigated Moscow as they called it a "destructive" step, which heightened tension and reduced the scope for a political solution. Moreover, even NATO has scheduled to extend its Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) units in Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria, further increasing its military escalation in the region. Furthermore, the US embassy in Kyiv, Washington, had also sent "close to 200,000 pounds of lethal aid, including ammunition for the front line defenders of Ukraine".
What does it mean?
With the revival of the Normandy format talks, one could also revisit the Minsk Protocol, a set of agreements signed in 2014 and 2015. Last week witnessed both escalation and de-escalation; the revival of the Normandy format is essential in this context.
Also, in the news...
By Ashwin Dhanabalan, Angkuran Dey and Meghna Manoj
East and Southeast Asia This Week
China: 2022 Winter Olympics kicks off
On 4 February, the lighting of the seven Olympic rings brought an end to the grand opening ceremony as the XXIV Winter Olympics in Beijing was declared open. The opening ceremony saw athletes from 91 National Olympic Committees (NOC's) participating together. On this occasion, International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach stated: "You have arrived here after overcoming so many challenges, living through great uncertainty. But now your moment has come: the moment you have been longing for – the moment we all have been longing for."
China: President Xi meets President Putin
On 4 February, on the sidelines of the Winter Olympics' inauguration, the two Presidents of China and Russia met. According to a Kremlin release, a "joint Russia-China statement and a package of documents have been adopted within the framework of the visit. They include an intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in anti-monopoly legislation and competitive policy and several other interdepartmental documents, such as the agreement on cooperation in ensuring compatibility and interoperability of GLONASS and BeiDou navigation satellite systems in terms of the system time scales; a joint statement on the completion of a roadmap for high-quality development of Russian-Chinese trade in goods and services; and a plan of consultations between the foreign ministries of Russia and China in 2022. In addition to that, the sides have signed a memorandum of understanding between the Russian Economic Development Ministry and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce to promote investment cooperation in sustainable (green) development, and a joint statement between the relevant ministries on holding the Russian and Chinese years of cooperation in physical education and sports in 2022–2023."
China: Foreign Minister Wang Yi virtually meets his Russian counterpart
On 3 February, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi virtually met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Wang Yi stated: "China is ready to work with Russia to deepen the time-honoured friendship and comprehensive strategic coordination between the two countries, uphold international fairness and justice and bring more benefits to the people of the two countries and the world at large." Lavrov acknowledged China's efforts to enhance bilateral cooperation and spoke about Moscow's interest to work with Beijing on several fronts, such as the Eurasian Economic Union and the Belt and Road initiative.
North Korea: Pyongyang's long-range missile launch and the US condemnation
On 30 January, North Korea fired a long-range missile test that covered the longest distance since 2017. The missile covered a distance of 800 kilometres, reaching an altitude of 2,000 kilometres before landing in the sea. The test marks North Korea's seventh-round weapons launch since the new year. The US military's Indo-Pacific command said: "The United States condemns these actions and calls on [North Korea] to refrain from further destabilizing acts."
Japan: PM Fumio Kishida requests Saudi Arabia's cooperation to balance the oil market
On 4 February, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a telephonic conversation with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and sought increased participation to stabilize crude oil prices. Kishida referred to Saudi Arabia as a "strategic partner" and conveyed his desire to bolster the bilateral ties. The talks happened due to the oil shortages and geo-political tensions occurring across the region. According to the Japanese Foreign Ministry, the Crown Prince acknowledged Kishida's concerns and mentioned the possibility of cooperating with Japan beyond the energy sector.
Myanmar: Silent strikes mark one year of the coup
On 1 February, Myanmar witnessed the first anniversary of the coup since the military took over. People protested against the military regime by staying at home and holding a silent strike. The silent strike resulted in deserted streets and abandoned shops across the towns and cities of Myanmar. Pro-military supporters took to the streets in a few regions, shouting pro-regime slogans. Even Mandalay, the second-largest town usually bustling with customers, saw none as the people were afraid to go out even after the protest.
Myanmar: 11th corruption charge against Suu Kyi
On 4 February, the military regime placed the 11th corruption charge against Aung San Suu Kyi for allegedly receiving a USD 550,000 donation as charity. The donation was received by the charity foundation named after her mother. Each corruption charge carries a possible 15-year jail term, and so far, Suu Kyi is facing more than 150 years in prison. Her next round of indictments will commence in mid-February on the charges of influencing the country's election commission in the 2020 elections.
ASEAN: Myanmar's top diplomat barred from attending the forthcoming foreign ministers' meeting
On 3 February, ASEAN announced to bar Myanmar's top diplomat Wunna Maung Lwin from attending an upcoming Foreign Ministers meeting. Cambodia's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Chum Sounry said: "Since there has been little progress in carrying out ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus, the ASEAN member states did not reach a consensus to invite Myanmar SAC's foreign minister to participate in the upcoming foreign ministers' retreat." He additionally said that the group had asked Myanmar to send a non-political representative.
South Asia This Week
Afghanistan: US treasury permits aid
On 3 February, the US treasury announced that aid for humanitarian purposes and payments of aid groups had been permitted. The announcement assured the pay of teachers and healthcare workers who work at state-run institutions, as the Islamic Emirate had sanctions imposed on them. Aid groups can also ship cash to Afghanistan to run humanitarian operations and direct payments to their project staff. Earlier, International banks were wary of the sanctions, due to which funders were discouraged from sending money for aid or humanitarian operations.
Afghanistan: Claims of progress in acquiring international recognition
On 4 February, Afghanistan's Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi mentioned about the progress the Islamic Emirate had made in gaining worldwide recognition. He stated: "...Our understanding and talks that we have had with everyone, we have had good achievements and that is a progress, we have come closer to that goal." The statement was made after the Afghan delegation held a series of meetings with delegations from the US, the European nations, and the EU. Muttaqi went ahead and invited countries to set up their embassies in Kabul and called for normalizing relations.
Nepal: MoU with India to construct a bridge on the Mahakali river
On 1 February, India and Nepal signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for constructing a motorable road on the Mahakali river. A statement released by the Indian embassy in Kathmandu stated: "This is in line with the priority shared by both the governments to expand cross-border connectivity for streamlining commercial, cultural and people-to-people exchanges."
Sri Lanka: India's EXIM bank to extend USD 500 million
On 3 February, India's Export-Import Bank (EXIM) signed an agreement with the Sri Lankan government to extend the USD 500 million line of credit to the cash-strapped country. Sri Lanka faces significant fuel shortages and is reeling under an economic crisis. An official statement released by the Ministry of External Affairs of India stated: "This critical support comes in the wake of a virtual meeting between the External Affairs Minister of India S. Jaishankar and Sri Lanka's Minister of Finance Basil Rajapaksa, held on 15 January."
Central Asia, Middle East and Africa This Week
Azerbaijan: The EU looks to Baku for increasing gas supplies
On 4 February, the European Union's Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson met with the Azberjaini President Ilham Aliyev to discuss ramping gas supply from the region. In a press conference after the talks, Simson said: "we want the volume of gas exported from Azerbaijan to Europe to reach ten billion cubic meters." The statement comes when the EU looks to diversify its energy sources and reduce extensive dependency on Russian gas. The joint statement released by both parties focused on reaffirming the strategic energy partnership based on long-term energy security goals.
UAE: France extends support to bolster the Emirate's defence system
On 4 February, Paris declared its decision to boost Abu Dhabi's air-defence system following the attacks launched by Houthis from Yemen. The Minister of the Armed Forces of the French Republic, Florence Parly, mentioned: "In order to show our solidarity with this friendly country, France has decided to provide military support, in particular, to protect the airspace against any intrusion." A permanent French military base in the United Arab Emirates and the recent transfer of 80 Rafale fighter jets to the UAE indicates strengthening relations between the two. The Al-Dhafra air base is expected to provide refuelling and surface-to-air capabilities as a part of the counter operations.
Mali: The EU places sanction on the transitional government
On 4 February, the EU placed sanctions targetting senior leaders of the transitional government over the delay in holding elections and bringing in reforms. A statement released by the EU stated: "The five designated people are subject to a travel ban, which prevents them from entering or transiting through EU territories, and an asset freeze." In addition, the Prime Minister of the transitional government, Choguel Maiga has been accused of failing to abide by the agreement for a new presidential vote scheduled for 27 February. The sanctions come after the military government made its intentions clear about staying in power until 2025.
Nigeria: Oil vessel explosion triggers environmental concern
On 4 February, a vessel carrying an estimated amount of 2,000 barrels of oil exploded, setting off significant concerns of casualties and the resulting environmental damage. The ship was located along the coast of the Niger Delta region, which is famous for its oil reserves. Oil company SEPCOL's Chief Executive Ikemefuna Okafor stated: "At this time there are no reported fatalities but we can confirm that there were 10 crewmen onboard the vessel prior to the incident". Moreover, the flare-up has increased worries among environmental activists and local communities since the Niger Delta region witnesses oil spills frequently.
Guinea-Bissau: President Embaló survives a coup attempt
On 3 February, the President of Guinea-Bissau Umaro Sissoco Embaló said that he survived a coup attempt after the government palace came under heavy fire for five hours. The local media has reported at least six deaths, including four attackers and two guards. The Guine-Bissau President, in a statement, stated: "When I was elected President of the republic, I promised to [fight] two things: corruption and drug trafficking. And this is also linked to that, and I knew what the price was, but the fight continues."
Europe and the Americas This Week
The UK: Sue Grey's report on PM Johnson's party gate scandals
On 1 February, civil servant Sue Grey released her report on Prime Minister Boris Johnson's party gate scandals. She said she found "failures of leadership and judgement" on Johnson's part. However, the report did not live up to its expectations as it provided little details about the 16 parties held. Additionally, there was a jurisdictional issue as 12 parties were not held in government buildings and are yet to be investigated by London's Metropolitan Police as a subject of criminal investigation.
The UK: 50 years since the Bloody Sunday
On 30 January, Northern Ireland marked its 50th anniversary of the Bloody Sunday massacre. During the massacre, British troops killed 13 unarmed protesters who were marching through the city of Londonderry for their civil rights 1972. The anniversary comes at the time when the region faces post-BREXIT woes. To date, no one has been convicted for the murders. The killings led to an increase in recruitment with the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which then stepped up its campaign of terror in the region and abroad until 1998.
The UK: Post-BREXIT creates a power vacuum in Northern Ireland
On 4 February, Northern Ireland's First Minister Paul Givan announced his resignation in protest against the post-BREXIT trade rules. His announcement came after Northern Ireland's Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots tried to block the inspection of goods arriving from the other parts of the UK. His resignation has resulted in a power vacuum as Northern Ireland's Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill of pro-Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein also lost her position due to the power-sharing arrangements between the two regions. The other members can continue with their posts but they cannot take any significant decisions.
Iceland: Reykjavík to end whaling by 2024
On 4 February, Iceland decided to stop whaling with the region's dwindling demand for whale meat. A member of the Green Party Svandis Svavarsdóttir stated: "There are few justifications to authorize the whale hunt beyond 2024. There is little proof that there is an economic advantage to this activity." Iceland is one of those few countries, along with Norway and Japan, that still hunt whales commercially. However, with Japan returning to commercial whaling in 2019 after its pullout from the International Whaling Commission, the demand for Icelandic whale meat has dropped drastically, and whaling has become too expensive to sustain.
Italy: President Mattarella gets re-elected
On 30 January, Italian President Sergio Mattarella withdrew his retirement plans and got elected as President at the end of the eighth round of voting. Mattarella was ready to move out of the Presidential Quirinale Palace quarters to a new apartment in Rome. But, he recalled his decision to retire in the wake of a potential power vacuum in Italy. Mattarella said: "I had other plans, but if needed, I am at your disposition."
Portugal: Antonio Costa wins an absolute majority
On 30 January, Portugal held snap general elections, and the ruling socialist party secured an absolute majority. Prime Minister Antonia Costa said: "An absolute majority doesn't mean absolute power. It doesn't mean to govern alone. It's an increased responsibility, and it means to govern with and for all Portuguese." Even though one-tenth of the country had been isolated, they were requested to go in the final hours of the poll to vote.
Ecuador: Oil spill endangers the Amazon
On 2 February, an oil spill caused by a ruptured pipeline leaked 6,300 barrels of oil into an environmental reserve. The pipeline is owned by the Oleoducto de Crudos Pesados (OCP), who said they were using people and machines to collect traces of crude oil that spilled into the river. The pipeline was damaged by a boulder due to the heavy rains and landslides in the region and has affected the Cayambe-Coca nature reserve. This is the second oil leak South America is facing after the oil spill off the coast of Peru.
The US: Warning to Chinese firms on helping Russia amidst potential sanctions
On 3 February, the US issued a warning to Chinese firms regarding the consequences of evading export controls in the case of a Ukrainian invasion by Russia. The US, along with other Western countries, has said that an invasion of Ukraine would bring sanctions on Moscow. The US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price stated: "We have an array of tools that we can deploy if we see foreign companies, including those in China, doing their best to backfill US export control actions, to evade them, to get around them."
About the authors
Ashwin Dhanabalan is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Angkuran Dey, and Meghna Manoj are Postgraduate scholars at the Center for South Asian Studies at Pondicherry University.
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IN FOCUS | Tunisia: The question of undocumented migrants
Indrani Talukdar
Belarus’s endgame in Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Padmashree Anandhan
Russia: Drone attacks escalate the Ukraine war
Padmashree Anandhan
The UK: Conservative party put to test as worker strikes continue
Bhoomika Sesharaj
PR Explains: Pakistan’s power outage
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Pakistan’s Blue Helmets: A long-standing contribution
D Suba Chandran
Karachi: The race and new alignments for the Mayor
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Macron’s visit to Africa: Three Takeaways
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Nigeria elections: Ruling party wins; What is ahead?
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | M23 atrocities in DRC and upcoming Nigeria elections
NIAS Africa Team
Africa in 2023: Elections and conflicts
IPRI Team
The continuing crisis in Israel
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Africa
IPRI Team
Protests in Spain, Sweden and Israel
Avishka Ashok
China: A complicated economic recovery
Padmashree Anandhan
Europe: An impending energy crisis and its economic fallouts
Ankit Singh
Defence: Towards a new cold war
Riya Itisha Ekka
Brazil: Managing Bolsonaro’s legacy
Apoorva Sudhakar
Africa: Despite the elections, democratic backslide will continue
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Pakistan in 2023: Between elections, economic turmoil and climate crisis
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Sri Lanka in 2023: A troubling economy and an unstable polity
Avishka Ashok
Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Africa
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Bamako’s pardon of Ivorian soldiers
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The relapse of ANC
Allen Joe Mathew, Sayani Rana, Joel Jacob
Newsmakers: From Putin to Rushdie
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Rest in Peace; Queen Elizabeth. Mikhail Gorbachev, Pelé...
Ankit Singh
Global economy in 2022: The year of cooling down
Bhoomika Sesharaj
Digital world: Elon Musk and the Twitter Chaos
Madhura Mahesh
The FTX Collapse: Depleting cryptocurrencies
Harini Madhusudan
The Space race: Scaling new technological feats
Avishka Ashok
G20: More challenges
Akriti Sharma
COP27: Hits and Misses
Padmashree Anandhan
The Ukraine War
Poulomi Mondal
French Exit from Mali: More questions than answers
Mohaimeen Khan
Yemen, Syria, and Sudan: Continuing humanitarian crises
Padmashree Anandhan
NATO and the Madrid Summit: Expanding defence frontiers
Padmashree Anandhan
Elections in France, Sweden, and Italy: The rise of the right
Janardhan G
North Korea: Missile Tests Galore
Avishka Ashok
The Taiwan Strait: Political and military assertions
Anu Maria Joseph
Ethiopia: Uncertainties despite ceasefire
Apoorva Sudhakar
Tunisia: The end of the Jasmine Revolution
Rashmi BR
Iraq: Deadlock and breakthrough
Kaviyadharshini A
Iran: Anti-government protests
Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare
Sri Lanka: Political and Economic Crises
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: The coup and after
NIAS Africa Team
The US-Africa Leaders Summit
IPRI Team
Workers strike in the UK
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | End of Operation Barkhane
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The ceasefire in Ethiopia
IPRI Team
Drone attacks in Russia
Vignesh Ram | Assistant Professor | Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal
Malaysia’s recent Elections: More questions than answers
Vignesh Ram
Anwar Ibrahim: Malaysia's new Prime Minister
Harini Madhusudan, Rishma Banerjee, Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan, and Avishka Ashok
What next for Russia, Ukraine, Europe, South Asia & India, and China
Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee
UNGA 77: Who said what from Europe?
Rashmi BR and Akriti Sharma
COP27: Ten key takeaways
Rashmi Ramesh
Ice Melt in Alps in Europe: Three impacts
Rishma Banerjee
Tracing Europe's droughts
Padmashree Anandhan
Major causes behind Europe’s continuing heatwaves
Emmanuel Selva Royan
100 days of the Ukraine war: US Responses in the war
Padmashree Anandhan
100 days of the Ukraine war: What next for Europe?
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
100 days of the Ukraine war: More loss than gain for Russia
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Challenges to peace in Eastern Congo
Avishka Ashok | Research Associate | National Institute of Advanced Studies
20th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China: Major takaways
Angelin Archana | Assistant Professor, Women’s Christian College, Chennai
China's response to the Ukraine crisis: Shaped by its relationship with Russia and EU under the US Shadow
Shreya Upadhyay | Assistant Professor, Christ (Deemed to be University), Bangalore
Transatlantic Ties in the Wake of Ukraine-Russia War
Uma Purushothaman | Assistant Professor, Central University of Kerala, Kerala
Ukraine and beyond: The US Strategies towards Russia
Debangana Chatterjee | Assistant Professor, JAIN (Deemed-to-be University), Bangalore
Lessons from Ukraine War: Effectiveness of Sanctions
Himani Pant | Research Fellow, ICWA, Delhi
Ukraine and beyond: What next for Russia and Europe?
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Deal
Avishka Ashok
G20 Summit: Four takeaways from Bali
NIAS Africa Team
China-Africa relations: Looking back and looking ahead
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Chad's political crisis
Sourina Bej
Elections in Sweden
Padmashree Anandhan
Italy's far-right wins 2022 elections
Padmashree Anandhan
Putin’s address in the Valdai Discussion: Six takeaways
Devjyoti Saha
Solomon Islands’ China card: Three reasons why
NIAS Africa Team
Floods in West Africa: Nigeria and beyond
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Famine in Somalia
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Kenya Elections 2022
IPRI Team
Protests in Iran
IPRI Team
Clashes between Armenia-Azerbaijan
Padmashree Anandhan
Queen Elizabeth: End of an era
Padmashree Anandhan
Russia and Eastern Economic Forum 2022: A sturdy Far East
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The reinvention of Al Shabab
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Lavrov's visit to Africa
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Macron's visit to Africa
GP Team
Floods and Emergency in Pakistan
IPRI Team
Six months of War in Ukraine
GP Team
Regional round-ups
Padmashree Anandhan
Who will be the next UK prime minister: Liss Truss v. Rishi Sunak
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Tunisia's political crisis
NIAS Africa Team
Tunisia’s political crisis: Five questions
NIAS Africa Team
Tribal conflict in Blue Nile: Causes and Implications
STIR Team
Geopolitics of Semiconductors
Padmashree Anandhan
France: Uber files leak, and Macron’s trouble
Emmanuel Selva Royan
Italy: Three factors about its current political instability
NIAS Africa Team
Sudan-Ethiopia border tensions and a profile of Blaise Compaoré
NIAS Africa Team
Africa’s continuing migration problem: Three issues
STIR Team
China in Space: Shenzhou-13 and Tiangong
NIAS Africa Team
Africa’s displacement crises: Three key drivers
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Into the Sixth Decade of African Unity
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Communal Tensions in Ethiopia
Padmashree Anandhan
What does Macron's victory mean for France and the EU
Rishma Banerjee
The rise of Marine Le Pen
Sourina Bej
Four challenges ahead for President Macron
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Mali ends defence ties with France
GP Team
New US assistance for Ukraine
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | UK-Rwanda asylum deal
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Africa, Russia, and the War in Ukraine
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Political Crisis in Tunisia
GP Team
Russia's gas ultimatum to Europe
IPRI Team
30 days of War in Ukraine
NIAS Africa Team
60 years of Algerian independence
IPRI Team
Sri Lanka’s worsening economic crisis
NIAS Africa Team
In Focus: Libya
IPRI Team
The end of Denmark’s Inuit experiment
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Europe and Africa: Will AU and EU be equal partners?
Anu Maria Joseph
Europe and Africa: Will AU and EU be equal partners?
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Lecture report: Ukraine, Russia and Europe
Joeana Cera Matthews
Into History: Northern Ireland and Bloody Sunday, 50 years later
Nireekshan Bollimpalli
Africa’s slow COVID vaccination continues. Four reasons why
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS: Conflict over the Nile Dam
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS: Instability in Burkina Faso
Padmashree Anandhan
Munich Security Report: Six takeaways
Joeana Cera Matthews
Europe and Africa: An elusive search for an equal partnership
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Femicides in Europe: The case of France
Padmashree Anandhan
Post Brexit: Three challenges in Northern Ireland
Porkkodi Ganeshpandian and Angkuran Dey
The return of the Left
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Lithuania and China: Vilnius has become Beijing’s Achilles heel. Four reasons why
Mohamad Aseel Ummer
Africa: The anti-France sentiments in Mali and beyond
Shalini Balaiah
The Middle East in 2021: Never-ending wars and conflicts
Angelin Archana
Russia in 2021: Expanding boundaries
Prakash Panneerselvam
East Asia in 2021: New era of hegemonic competition
Apoorva Sudhakar
Coup in Burkina Faso: Five things to know
Joeana Cera Matthews
In Europe, abortion rights are "a privilege." Four reasons why
Padmashree Anandhan
Mapping COVID-19 protests in Europe: Who and Why
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Pakistan, US and Russia: Putin Online, Biden Offline
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The unrest in Kazakhstan: Look beyond the trigger
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Deepening Pakistan-Russia ties
D. Suba Chandran
Justice Ayesha: Breaking the Legal Ceiling
Ankit Singh
Pakistan's Judiciary in 2021
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Same Page Story: Civil-Military Relations in 2021
D. Suba Chandran
Pakistan's Foreign Policy in 2021
Ankit Singh
Pakistan’s economy in 2021: Major highlights
Ankit Singh
Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank
Apoorva Sudhakar
The PDM is back, again
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Qureshi’s visit to Brussels: Three takeaways
GP Team
The Complete Compendium for 2021
GP Team
The Americas in 2021
GP Team
Europe in 2021
GP Team
Middle East and Africa in 2021
GP Team
South Asia in 2021
Apoorva Sudhakar
Protests in Gwadar: Four major highlights
Ankit Singh
Mini budget, IMF and a contemporary puzzle.
Ankit Singh
Pappu Sain bids adieu to the world
Apoorva Sudhakar
Smog, pollution and more: Deteriorating air quality in Pakistan
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
PTI’s secret dealing with the TTP and TLP
Vaishnavi Iyer
France, Algeria, and the politics over an apology
Joeana Cera Matthews
NATO-Russia relationship: Looking beyond the suspensions and expulsions
D. Suba Chandran
PTI’s TLP flip-flop and a secret deal
Apoorva Sudhakar
The increasing curbs on digital media freedom in Pakistan
Padmashree Anandhan
Facebook's Metaverse: Why it matters to Europe
Joeana Cera Matthews
Poland, EU and PolExit. It is complicated, for three reasons
Harini Madhusudhan
Europe's Energy Crisis and Gazprom
D. Suba Chandran
TLP: The government caves in again
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
TLP is back again
Apoorva Sudhakar | Project Associate, School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS
Pakistan’s transgender community: The long road ahead
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Since January 2021: Why the US President has not called Pakistan’s Prime Minister so far?
Apoorva Sudhakar
No honour in honour killing
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The Military Reshuffle: A strategic or routine decision?
D. Suba Chandran
Dr AQ Khan: Between a national hero and a nuclear proliferator
Apoorva Sudhakar
Rising child abuse in Pakistan: Five reasons why
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Hazara Persecution in Pakistan: No end in sight
D. Suba Chandran
Protests in Gwadar: Who and Why
Chetna Vinay Bhora
Europe's Energy Crisis: It could get worse. Five reasons why
STIR Team
Cover Story: War against Malaria
Aswathy Koonampilly
Japan: New Prime Minister, Old party
GP Team
Europe's Energy Crisis
STIR Team
The Science and Politics of Materials
Sourina Bej
France: Paris Terror Trial
Harini Madhusudan
Belarus: Weaponization of the Migrant Crisis
Juan Mary Joseph
Attacks on Chinese Investments in Pakistan: Who, Where And Why?
Joeana Cera Matthews
Haiti: Two months after the assassination, the storm is still brewing
Joeana Cera Matthews
From Crimea to Navalny: Putin's calibrated Europe strategy
Joeana Cera Matthews
Nord Stream-2: Why is the region unhappy about the pipeline?
Lokendra Sharma
Two months of Cuban protests: Is the ‘revolution’ ending?
GP Team
The New Afghanistan
STIR Team
Climate Change and Energy Options
Apoorva Sudhakar
Digital Pakistan: Idea, Potential and Challenges
Anu Maria Joseph
South Africa: What is behind the pro-Zuma protests?
Dincy Adlakha
China and Russia in Myanmar: The interests that bind
Sarthak Jain
Nord Stream 2 is Russia’s geopolitical victory
Jeshil J Samuel
REvil is dead. Long live REvil
STIR Team
Space Tourism
Keerthana Rajesh Nambiar
The EU Summit 2021: Five Takeaways
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Impending famine in Tigray, should make Ethiopia everyone's problem
Anu Maria Joseph
Too late and too little is Ethiopia's international problem
Sankalp Gurjar
Africa's Ethiopia Problem
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia's Tigray problem is Tigray's Ethiopia problem
Lokendra Sharma
The future of nuclear energy looks bleak
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Five reasons why Afghanistan is closer to a civil war
Mohamad Aseel Ummer
Migration in Africa: Origin, Drivers and Destinations
Dincy Adlakha
The new three-child policy is two decades too late
Dincy Adlakha
Loud Echoes of the National Security Law in China
Joeana Cera Matthews
Farfetched goals on pandemic recovery, climate action and economic revival
STIR Team
Rare Earths and the Global Resource Race
SDP Scholar
The Rise and Reign of Ransomware
Gurpreet Singh
India and the geopolitics of supply chains
Chetna Vinay Bhora
Spain, Morocco and the rise of rightwing politics in Europe over immigration
Vibha Venugopal
The return of Taliban will be bad news for women
Udbhav Krishna P
Revisiting the recent violence: Three takeaways
Joeana Cera Matthews
For the Economist, Taiwan is the most dangerous place. The argument is complicated
Apoorva Sudhakar
15 of the 23 global hunger hotspots are in Africa. Three reasons why
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The US decision to withdraw is a call made too early. Three reasons why
Lokendra Sharma
Learning from Cuba's vaccine development efforts
V S Ramamurthy and Dinesh K Srivastava
An energy mix of renewables and nuclear is the most viable option
Lokendra Sharma
Deadly second wave spirals into a humanitarian disaster
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The US-Taliban Deal: One Year Later
Akriti Sharma
The Quad Plus and the search beyond the four countries
Apoorva Sudhakar
India's Endgames, Roles and Limitations in Quad
Sukanya Bali
Tracing the Quad's evolution in the last two decades
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia: Five fallouts of the military offensive in Tigray
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Afghanistan: The recent surge in targeted killing vs the troops withdrawal
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
In Honduras, a move towards a permanent ban on abortion laws
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Civilian protests vs military: Three factors will decide the outcome in Myanmar
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Trump’s Climate Change legacy: Disruption and Denial
Apoorva Sudhakar
Trump’s Iran legacy: Maximum pressure, minimum results
N Manoharan and Drorima Chatterjee
Five ways India can detangle the fishermen issue with Sri Lanka
IPRI Team
Coup in Myanmar and Protests in Russia
D Suba Chandran
The PDM differences, Gwadar fencing, and Lakhvi's arrest
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Nagorno-Karabakh: Rekindled fighting, Causalities and a Ceasefire
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Thailand: For the pro-democracy protests, it is a long march ahead
Harini Madhusudan
Brexit: A year of the UK-EU transition talks and finally, a Deal
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia: The conflict in Tigray and the regional fallouts
Aparaajita Pandey
The Americas: Top Five Developments
Teiborlang T Kharsyntiew
Europe: Top five developments
Sandip Kumar Mishra
East Asia: Top Five developments in 2020
Harini Madhusudan
Outer Space in 2020: Missions, Privatization, and the Artemis Accords
Sukanya Bali
5G, Huawei and TikTok: Four trends in 2020
Sumedha Chatterjee
COVID-19: How the world fought in 2020
Harini Madhusudan
The Vaccine Rush: Expectations vs Realities
Harini Madhusudan
Open Skies Treaty: The US should not have withdrawn, for five reasons
Savithri Sellapperumage
Kamala Harris makes history
Mallika Devi
China is against the Quad. Five reasons why
Srikumar Pullat
Space of Tomorrow: The Need for Space Security
Tamanna Khosla
Japan: New Prime Minister, Old Challenges
Vaishali Handique
Not just regime change: Women and protest movements in Sudan
Sneha Tadkal
Technology in contemporary global protest movements
Chavindi Weerawansha
Students as agents of change: Protest movements in Zimbabwe
Anju Annie Mammen
“Unveiling”: Women and protest movements in the Middle East
Harini Madhusudan
‘The Revolution of Our Times’: Protests in Hong Kong
Samreen Wani
Lebanon: Can Macron's visit prevent the unravelling?
Harini Madhusudan
The Legacy of Shinzo Abe. It is Complicated.
Boa Wang
Two Sessions in Beijing
Boa Wang
How China fought the COVID-19
N. Manoharan
Is COVID-19 a Bio-weapon from China?
Prof PM Soundar Rajan
Is there an overlap of 5G Networks and COVID hotspots?
Rashmi Ramesh
Will COVID-19 provide a new agenda to the NAM?
Harini Madhusudan
Iran's New Military Satellite: Does it violate the UNSC 2231?
Jenice Jean Goveas
Epidemics through History
Sanduni Atapattu
Preventing hatred and suspicion would be a bigger struggle
Chavindi Weerawansha
A majority in the minority community suffers, for the action of a few
Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare
The Cardinal sermons for peace, with a message to forgive
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Who and Why of the Perpetrators
Natasha Fernando
In retrospect, where did we go wrong?
Ruwanthi Jayasekara
Build the power of Co-existence, Trust, Gender and Awareness
N Manoharan
New ethnic faultlines at macro and micro levels
Asanga Abeyagoonasekera
A year has gone, but the pain has not vanished
Jenice Jean Goveas
In India, the glass is half full for the women
Fatemah Ghafori
In Afghanistan, there is no going back for the women
Lakshmi V Menon
The decline in terrorism in Pakistan in 2019
Rashmi Ramesh
The EU and the Arctic: The interest is not mutual. Why?
Rashmi Ramesh
Iceland, Denmark and Norway: Small is Big in the Arctic
Harini Madhusudan
The Non-Arctic powers: Interests of Japan and South Korea
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Malaysia: New PM, Old Challenges
Lakshmi V Menon
Pakistan to remain “Grey”; North Korea and Iran in “Black”
Rashmi Ramesh
Trump's India Visit: Optics, Substance and Rhetoric
Kabi Adhikari
The controversial MCC Nepal Compact
Malini Sethuraman
ISIS post Baghdadi: Will there be another Caliphate in 2020?
Aarathi Srinivasan
Climate Change: The Economy of the Indian Ocean Region in 2020
Prathiksha Ravi
Israel and the Middle East: The New Alliance Plans in 2020
Padmini Anilkumar
Middle East: The Return of Russia in 2020
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sudan and Algeria: Road to Democracy in 2020
Lakshmi V Menon
Syria: ISIS Decline, US Retreat and the Return of Russia in 2020
Harini Madhusudan
The US-China Trade Dispute: Towards further disruptions in 2020
Parikshith Pradeep
The US under Donald Trump: The Fall of an Empire in 2020
Vivek Mishra
After Soleimani assassination: Options for the US
Sukanya Bali
Iran, Iraq and the US: Who wants what?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Old problems to persist with no solutions in the near term
Aashiyana Adhikari
Indian and Chinese investments in Nepal: Managing asymmetry
Shailesh Nayak | Director, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Blue Economy and India: An Introduction
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
North Africa in 2019: A year of protests, with some positive results
Sukanya Bali
Hong Kong in 2019: China's New Achilles Heel
Harini Madhusudan
The US-China Trade Dispute in 2019: Towards a thaw in 2020?
Parikshith Pradeep
The US in 2019: Trump rollsout a template for a global American retreat
Rashmi Ramesh
The Arctic Littorals: Iceland and Greenland
Harini Madhusudan
The Polar Silk Route: China's ambitious search in the Arctic
GP Team
Syria: Who wants what?
Harini Madhusudan
Violence in Hong Kong: Will the protests end?
Rashmi Ramesh
Is Catalonia Spain’s Hong Kong?
D. Suba Chandran
Why an Arctic foray is essential for India
Parikshith Pradeep
Russia's Polar Military Edge
Nidhi Dalal
Protests rock Chile, Bolivia and Haiti
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Will prosecuting Suu Kyi resolve the Rohingya problem?
Lakshman Chakravarthy N & Rashmi Ramesh
Climate Change: Four Actors, No Action
Sukanya Bali
Brexit: Preparing for the Worst Case
Lakshman Chakravarthy N
5G: A Primer
Rashmi Ramesh
From Okjökull to OK: Death of a Glacier in Iceland
Sukanya Bali
Challenges before Boris Johnson
Parikshith Pradeep
The Hong Kong Protests: Who wants what
Harini Madhusudan
The Hong Kong Protests: Re-defining mass mobilization
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
ASEAN Outlook on the Indo Pacific: Worth all the Hype?
Mahesh Bhatta
Monsoons first, Floods next and the Blame Games follow
Titsala Sangtam
Counting Citizens: Manipur charts its own NRC
Vivek Mishra
Can Hedging be India’s Strategy?
Lakshmi V Menon
Amidst the US-Iran standoff, Saudi Arabia should be cautious
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
For Russia, it was big power projection
Harini Madhusudan
For China, it was trade and a temporary truce
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
For Japan, it was commerce and climate change
Sourina Bej
For the US, it was trade, tariff and talks
Titsala Sangtam
Iran, US and the Nuclear deal: Europe in the middle?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Modi's Colombo Visit: Four issues to watch
Raakhavee Ramesh
Higher than the Himalayas: Pakistan and China
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Across the Himalayas: Nepal and China
Mahath Mangal
The Russian Resurgence: Is the US supremacy waning?
Mahath Mangal
San Francisco wants to ban, Kashgar wants to expand
Jerin George
Espionage or Investigative Journalism?
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The Huawei Controversy: Five things you need to know
Mahath Mangal
Why the world needs to look at Yemen
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The Central Asia Connector
Harini Madhusudan
An Under-represented East Asia
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Africa Embraces the Belt and Road
Sourina Bej
It’s Europe vs EU on China
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sudan: Between Democracy and another military rule
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Responses and Inspiring Lessons
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Thailand: Between Elections and Instability
Sourina Bej
Two Sessions in 2019: Four Takeaways
Lakshmi V Menon
The End of ISIS Caliphate?
Harini Madhusudan
For China, its a sigh of relief
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
For Vietnam, its a big deal
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
For Japan, No Deal is Good Deal
Sourina Bej
For South Korea, a costly disappointment
Harini Madhusudan
No deal is better, but isn't it bad?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
The Other Conflict in Rakhine State
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Yemen: Will Sa'nna fall?
Harini Madhusudan
Sinicizing the Minorities
GP Team
US, South Korea and Thailand
Lakshmi V Menon
The Qatar Blockade: Eighteen Months Later
GP Team
Yemen, Venezuela and US-China
Sourina Bej
Maghreb: What makes al Shahab Resilient?
Harini Madhusudan
US-China Trade War: No Clear Winners
Abhishrut Singh
Trump’s Shutdown: Five Things to Know
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: Will 2019 be better for the Rohingya?
D. Suba Chandran
Bangladesh: The Burden of Electoral History
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
US and China: Between Confrontation and Competition
Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu
Nepal
Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
The Maldives
Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
India
Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
Bangladesh
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
Afghanistan
Harini Madhusudan
China and Japan: Renewing relations at the right time
Sourina Bej
The INF Treaty: US withdraws to balance China?
Harini Madhusudan
The Khashoggi Killing: Unanswered Questions
Lakshmi V Menon
US and Israel: Trump's Deal of the Century
Nasima Khatoon
The New Maldives: Advantage India?
Harini Madhusudhan
To NAFTA or Not: Trump, Mexico and Canada
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Malaysia’s China Moment: The Mahathir Gamble
Sourina Bej
BIMSTEC: A Bay of Good Hope?
Young Scholars Debate
India, Imran Khan and Indo-Pak Relations
Siddhatti Mehta
Does Brexit mean Brexit?
Oishee Majumdar
Factsheet: China’s Investments in Africa
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
The 8888 Uprising: Thirty Years Later
Harini Madhusudhan
The Tariff War: 'Stick of Hegemony' vs Vital Interests
Druta Bhatt
FactSheet: Shangri La Dialogue 2018
Rahul Arockiaraj
Immigrants as the “Other”: The Social and Economic Factors in the US
Divyabharathi E
Is Trump-Putin Summit a setback for the US?
Apoorva Sudhakar
India and Bangladesh: The Long Haul
Divyabharathi E
Quad as an alternative to the BRI: Three Main Challenges
Oishee Majumdar
FactSheet: India-Bangladesh Relations
D. Suba Chandran
Trump meets Putin; will it cost NATO?
Sourina Bej
Trump and the NATO: One Block, Different Views
Gayan Gowramma KC
Now, the United States withdraws from the UNHRC
Siddhatti Mehta
Will China be able to sustain its Dominance?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: Why won't they do anything for the Rohingya?
Harini Madhusudan
The Idea of an US Space Force: Strategic Calculations
Apoorva Sudhakar
Afghan Peace: Reality or Illusion?
Hely Desai
Looking beyond Trump: Is the US declining?
Manushi Kapadia
Is China using its soft power to become superpower?
Lakshmi. V. Menon
Middle East: Has Russia chosen Israel over Iran?
Miti Shah
G7: Why Trump wants Russia in?
Hely Desai
FactSheet: G7 Summit
Siddhatti Mehta
The Panmunjom Declaration: “Tip of the Iceberg”
Druta Bhatt
Iran N-Deal and the Trans-Atlantic Divide
Manushi Kapadia
US and China: Towards a Trade War
Miti Shah
Palestine: US triggers new tensions
Divyabharathi E
The "Indo-Pacific Command": What's in the name?
Harini Madhusudan
Trump’s Tariff Strategy: Targetting Adversaries and Allies
Hely Desai
Trump-Kim Summit: Three Likely Outcomes
Apoorva Sudhakar
The Lebanon Pawn: Will it change after elections?
Lakshmi V Menon
Israel, the Game Changer?
Samreen Wani
Deciphering Turkey's External Push
Divyabharathi E
China and Russia: The New Alignments
Ann Maria Shibu
Can India afford to lose Maldives to China?
Dhruv Ashok
Why Maldives is important to China?
Lakshmi V Menon
ISIS and the Yazidi victims: Why the World should stand up?
Harini Madhusudan
US- China Tariff Face-off : Five questions
Jamyang Dolma
Why is Free Tibet important for India
Divyabharathi E
Arctic: The Strategic Significance
Lakshmi V Menon
Do we need the Quad?
Samreen Wani
Why Trump’s Iran exit is a big mistake?
Jamyang Dolma
Inter Korean Summit: Will it work?
Dhruv Ashok
The Fishermen Issue between India and Sri Lanka
Apoorva Sudhakar
Bangladesh's Economy: Decoding a Success Story
Ann Maria Shibu
Why India should not pull out of the Indus water treaty?
Divyabharathi E